Don’t Guess, Update: Bayes’ Theorem for Managers

Don’t Guess, Update: Bayes’ Theorem for Managers

Saturday, Oct 24, 2026

Managers make decisions without ever having complete information. If a candidate performs well in an interview, does that mean they will definitely be a good employee? If the first print run of a new book sells out in two weeks, is that a sign of sustained demand or just launch hype? If sales rise by 15% after an advertising campaign, will increasing the budget lead to further growth?

13 minute read
Deck Builder: From a Manual Presentation to a Small Python Service

Deck Builder: From a Manual Presentation to a Small Python Service

Monday, Sep 28, 2026

Most of my small projects don’t start with me wanting to code something. They start with a recurring task at work. In the case of deck-builder, that task was a monthly presentation of upcoming book releases that we used to put together manually.

I decided to automate it. In this post, I’ll explain why I needed deck-builder, how it grew from a Google Colab script into a service my team can use, and why its architecture is the way it is today.

10 minute read
Beyond the Average Print Run

Beyond the Average Print Run

Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026

The average print run has decreased, but that does not mean every publisher is printing fewer copies. I look at the distribution of publishing output by print-run size in the first half of 2026 and show how a small number of high-volume editions can affect the overall picture.

6 minute read
What We Mean by Business Books and Why the Category No Longer Explains Much

What We Mean by Business Books and Why the Category No Longer Explains Much

Thursday, Sep 17, 2026

RBC published its “Must Read” ranking of the most in-demand business books, based on revenue data from Chitai-Gorod and LitRes.1 I opened the top ten and fairly quickly found myself with an odd impression: there were hardly any books about business in it.

5 minute read
Beyond Revenue

Beyond Revenue

Tuesday, Sep 15, 2026

Revenue is holding steady, but fewer copies are selling. I look at how to separate volume and price effects, and why reprint decisions also depend on sales rates and stock levels.

7 minute read

Hello World

Friday, Sep 11, 2026

It sounds a little extreme, but in this day and age, if your work isn’t online, it doesn’t exist.
Austin Kleon, Show Your Work!

1 minute read

© 2022 - 2026 Kirill Ignatyev

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About me

I’ve worked in publishing for more than a decade, progressing from editor to business unit leader.

Today, I’m responsible for the strategic and operational management of a business unit, developing its product portfolio, launching new product lines, and scaling established categories.

I’m particularly interested in problems at the intersection of product, business, and data. I work with large product portfolios and build my own Python tools to analyze and manage them.

Work Experience

I currently lead a business unit at AST Publishing Group, with full P&L responsibility and ownership of product strategy and portfolio development.

I oversee a portfolio of more than 5,000 SKUs, lead a team of 28, and manage a business generating over RUB 800 million in annual revenue.

My work focuses on portfolio strategy, demand and inventory turnover analysis, unit economics, and margin management. I also develop international licensing and partnerships across Asia, the United States, and Europe.

Between 2021 and 2025, the unit’s revenue grew by 146%, profit by 168%, and return on sales by 8 percentage points. Market share in one of our key categories increased from 26% to 55%.

Education
  • MBA Strategic Management
    Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
  • Publishing Management
    Moscow State University of Printing Arts
  • MA in Linguistics
    Moscow City University
  • English and Curriculum
    Moscow City University
Courses
  • Applied Data Science Lab
    WorldQuant University
  • Data Analysis with Python
    University of Helsinki, Department of Computer Science
  • Advanced Course in Python Programming
    University of Helsinki, Department of Computer Science
  • Introduction to Python Programming
    University of Helsinki, Department of Computer Science
Professional Engagements

LTI Korea Translation Academy (Seoul, Republic of Korea), mentor for Russian-language translators, 2021–2026

KPIPA Overseas Publishing Market Report 2021 (Seoul, Republic of Korea), author of the report on the Russian book market, 2022

KPIPA Overseas Publishing Market Report 2018 (Seoul, Republic of Korea), author of the report on the Russian book market, 2019

Korean Literature Showcase 2019 (Seoul, Republic of Korea), speaker, 2019

International Translation & Publication Workshop (Seoul, Republic of Korea), mentor for Russian-language translators, 2019

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